When WorkingIsn't Working

by Sheri Friedman

Fairfax has high housing costs because the median income is so high. The job market is affecting people with disposable income, and there will be a ripple effect on the economy. Will it push Fairfax County to address housing costs?

Part One

The High Cost of a High Median Wage

In 2023, some of the highest paying industries in Fairfax County were Finance & Insurance and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing. The individual median income was $67,693 and the median household income was $141,553.

The current average studio rent is $1,937 in 2026. An individual would have to earn $5,811 monthly or $69,732 annually to make three times the rent. Even earning the median wage of just above $67,600 prices people out of some studios. They, furthermore, have to compete for the lower than average priced ones. It is not a budgeting issue when people making the median wage still can't afford the average studio.


Cost burdened is defined as spending over 30% of your income on housing and severely cost burdened means paying more than 50% of your income on housing.

Being Cost Burdened in Fairfax County (2024 Data)

U.S. Census Bureau, "Financial Characteristics," American Community Survey, ACS 1-Year Estimates Subject Tables, Table S2503, accessed on January 3, 2026, https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2024.S2503?q=S2503+Fairfax+County,+Virginia+.

Even a person making $70,000 with an average studio rent can be over 30% of their net income since they qualified with their gross income. At the same time, food and goods are skyrocketing. People who are cost-burdened will contribute less to the economy at large because housing eats up a large portion of their income.


The lack of affordable housing more so impacts renters who work lower wage, essential jobs. The term for people who make above the federal poverty level but not enough to make ends meet is ALICE® (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed). In Fairfax County, 5% of households live in poverty and 24% of households are ALICE. That means almost 30% of residents struggle to make ends meet, as of 2023 data, based on their wages.

Top Five Common ALICE Jobs in Fairfax County

Sector Number Employed Average Hourly Earnings
Retail trades 17,000+ $16.87
Construction 15,000+ $22.35
Healthcare and social assistance 11,700+ $18.82
Professional/Scientific and technical services 11,100+ $25.37
Accommodations and food service 10,600+ $12.32

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024

Then, when you take into consideration someone who makes $70,000 might be cost burdened as well, the financial struggles between being below the federal poverty level, ALICE, and making slightly over the median wage all start to overlap a bit because the majority will all have housing costs that are over 30% of their net income.


Fairfax County is aware of the affordable housing crisis, but they are not doing enough to address it. Fairfax plans to create 10,000 more affordable housing units by 2034. While this sounds like a lot of housing units, Fairfax County needed 26,300 units according to a 2021 report, which means they need at least 16,300 more units than they are building.


It is plausible that the need has grown more since then since the data compiled might not have included the gap left by COVID; it doesn't include the job losses due to DOGE, tariffs and their impact on the economy; and it might not take into consideration that rents keep going up and pricing people out. It is clear that 10,000 units by 2034 will not meet the population's needs.

Part Two

The Unemployment and Economic Crisis is Unfolding

As of March 2025, 20,836 Fairfax residents were counted as unemployed compared to 15,171 in March 2024. That is high change year over year. It is very likely that the numbered unemployed will increase as the workers who took the buyout stop working on September 30.

Unemployment in Fairfax County Throughout the Years

Source: St. Louis Fed. Accessed 1/3/2026.

A survey of 120 businesses in Fairfax showed a decrease in confidence in the economy. In the third quarter, before the shutdown, 40% expected the economy to improve with a drop to 26%, during the shutdown, feeling that the economy would improve. That is a 14 point drop or 35% decrease in confidence in just three months.

Let's take a look at a rental in this economy. This leasing company doesn't invest in landscaping like their neighbor does. This could be a sign that the rental ecosystem is starting to sour. Owners usually tend to the front of their house whether that is due to HOA rules or pride.

Rental sign without flowers

Photo credit: Sheri Friedman

Tariffs contribute to economic insecurity as well. The tariffs are slowing down construction. Since construction workers made an average of $46,500 in 2023, below the median by over $20,000, we know they may already struggle to find housing that doesn't make them cost burdened.

The shortage also requires new construction which may be impacted by tariffs. Addressing Virginia's affordable housing shortage will require construction of new affordable housing which would require paying tariffed prices on materials.

In Fairfax, zip code 22032, there were more than a handful of construction vans in the early afternoon, which means that the owners weren't working their construction jobs. There are other scenarios: they might have carpooled; they might have downsized their business and be working for someone else; they might be taking on a job next week; or, they might have gotten jobs in a different field. Anecdotally, but backed by data, it does show construction and household repairs may be slowing down.

Three cars

Photo credit: Sheri Friedman

Polices such as raising wages are contentious and politicized, but lowering houses costs shouldn't be. The bigger picture is that high housing costs enrich those in rental and leasing at the cost of local businesses that people can't frequent when they spend too much of their net income on rent.

"The impact of this shutdown goes beyond those directly affected; it hits our restaurants, retail and other businesses"- Springfield District Supervisor Pat Herrity

A gym membership might seem like a small expense, but with more people out of work, it might end up being a luxury that gets cut.

This gym appears to be struggling because the best advertisement they put out was hand-painting FREE on a white sphere to advertise a free month. The ripple effect of job losses in the area is likely being felt by them. Furthermore, their rent has likely increased year over year like housing properties have.

Gym photo

Photo credit: Sheri Friedman

Part Three

Increased Relief for Housing Needs are Being Sought

One resource for those in need 211. While it is only one resource and there are other places to turn for help, looking at Fairfax County 211 data by zip code can give us a better idea of where people requesting help reside.

Distribution of Requests for Help With Housing

The 211 housing help requests include help with shelter, rent, utilities and more and are a year over year change from all requests from 1/20/24 to 12/2024 and all requests from 1/20/25 to 12/20/2025

Hover over the hexagons

Source: va.211counts.org, accessed December 21, 2025

Part Four

Addressing Poverty Where It Resides, Housing, and Small Businesses

People tend to want to push the conditions of poverty and homelessness out of sight. The attitude is frequently "Not in my Backyard" (NIMBY). A sign in Fairfax City shopping center condescendingly asks for people who are unhoused to stay away from their shopping center. While the sign isn't wrong about donating to community supports, the approach shows the attitude of pushing the problem elsewhere.

211 Resource

Photo credit: Sheri Friedman

There seems to be an outpouring of support for federal workers during the shutdown. But there was support for essential workers and ALICE during the pandemic, and that support has lessened as time went on. As time goes on, people may forget about the federal workers and contractors who lost their jobs. Don't forget about the high housing costs and the stress it does to a household, especially if they lost income. It's harder to save for emergencies or unemployment when you are cost burdened.

Tell your legislators to support "Yes in My Backyard" (YIMBY) which makes it easier for religious organizations to have affordable housing on their properties among other bills to support affordable housing.

It's not radical to support legislation on affordable housing. The high housing costs have been normalized, but there is nothing normal about making the median wage and still being cost burdened.

Fairfax's current housing policy means residents spend more on housing, and less on the goods, services, and businesses that are propped up around people having disposable income. Support fair housing prices and support local businesses at the same time.